This course explores the sustainability of retirement portfolio withdrawals using historical data and a diversified, multi-asset portfolio model.
Led by Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D., the presentation analyzes the maximum sustainable annual withdrawal rate over the 31 rolling 25-year periods from 1970 to 2024, illustrating how portfolios can remain viable even after decades of distributions.
The course challenges the conventional 4% withdrawal rule, providing evidence that higher withdrawal rates—up to 10% or more in some periods—may be sustainable when portfolios are properly diversified and costs are managed.
Participants gain insight into the importance of asset allocation, sequence-of-return risk, and the benefits of percentage-based withdrawals. This research-driven analysis provides investment advisers and financial planners with practical, data-backed guidance for helping clients navigate retirement income planning with greater confidence.
The scored assessment asks a question about the following learning objectives, ensuring participants learn to:
Understand the impact of withdrawal rates on portfolio longevity. Withdrawals' influence how long a portfolio might last. |
Analyze a 25-year, 50% drawdown scenario. Explore max rates before portfolios drop by half. |
Review historical returns across 31 25-year rolling periods. Actual index data from 1970–2024 drives the analysis. |
Evaluate the Seven Asset Portfolio structure. Diversified with seven asset classes, equally weighted. |
Interpret results of sustainable withdrawal rates. Most 25-year periods sustained withdrawals of more than 7% annually. |
Compare real-life portfolio behavior to theory. Portfolio often grows despite regular withdrawals. |
Understand sequence-of-returns risk. Early losses harm sustainability more than later ones. |
Assess the role of portfolio cost and composition. High fees or poor allocation reduce sustainability. |
Explore fixed vs. percentage-based withdrawal strategies. Fixed amounts risk depletion during market declines. |
Use tools to simulate possible futures. Simulate various scenarios to guide withdrawal planning. |
Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D., has been a regular contributor to Advisors4Advisors since April 2009. Prof. Israelsen has taught about family financial management at universities and is currently Executive-in-Residence in the Financial Planning Program at Utah Valley University. He teaches classes toward earning a CFA charter. He's a regular contributor to AAII Journal. Craig provides a system to manage low-expense portfolios and educate clients on A4A.
Who Should Attend:
IA Reps, CFPs, CPA financial planners, CPA/PFSs, CIMAs, CLUs, ChFCs,, CFAs, and other professionals who seek a deeper understanding of diversified portfolio strategies.
Cost:
Free to Advisors4Advisors members ($60/Qtr).
CPE Credit:
1 hour, Finance field of study
Prerequisites: None
Advanced Preparation: None
Course Level: Update
Course Delivery Method: On-demand webinar replay
Program Policies:
Advisors4Advisors is approved as a provider of IAR CE by the North American Securities Administrators Association.
Advisors4Advisors is approved by the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a Quality Assurance Service (QAS) Self-Study Provider, enabling CPA financial planners to earn CPE credit on-demand via webinars on A4A, as well as on live webinars.
State boards of accountancy retain final authority on course acceptance. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors at www.nasbaregistry.org.
Advisors4Advisors is approved as a CE sponsor by CFP Board, and by Investments & Wealth Institute, enabling credit for CFP®, CIMA®, and CPWA® professionals.
For information regarding administrative policies, such as refunds, cancellations and complaints, mail [email protected].
This class has been submitted for approval by NASAA, CFP Board, IWI, and NASBA.
